America’s top election forecaster reveals prospect of a Donald Trump victory – as he issues chilling warning: ‘Make a contingency plan NOW’
America’s top election forecaster has issued a chilling warning as he revealed Trump could win the 2024 race and people should start making ‘contingency plans’ now.
Nate Silver, a former professional poker player and political forecaster, has revealed his model gives Donald Trump a 58 percent chance of winning the Electoral College.
Silver, known for his uncanny ability to predict election outcomes, told The Guardian that people should be ‘making their contingency plans, like, right away’ while promoting his new book ‘On the Edge’ in London.
One potential advantage of having a forecast that says … it’s 50/50, is that people should be making their contingency plans, like, right away,’ he said.
‘It doesn’t mean you need [to stockpile] ammo and peanut butter’ – that giggle again – ‘but it means, you know: what’s your strategy to protect American institutions in the event of a Trump second term?’
Nate Silver (pictured), a former professional poker player and political forecaster, has revealed his model gives Donald Trump a 58 percent chance of winning the Electoral College.
‘Or, in 2028 [or] 2032, a Trump-like Republican who maybe is more effective than Trump? If I were a liberal donor, for example, I would want to begin funding now … to protect institutions in that eventuality, instead of giving another $100,000 to Kamala Harris, who has more money than she needs,’ he continued.
While he gave Trump 58 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, he gave Harris a 60 percent chance of winning the popular vote.
People are going to interpret these polls however they can, and we have a way that’s empirically sound to do that, and has a track record over 16 years,’ he added.
‘I’m not paternalistic, right? We’re providing good information. We provide a lot of context about it … I’m old-school traditionalist, and I believe: provide people with good information, and that empowers them to make better decisions.’
‘I give, I think, more weight to intuition and emotional judgment as actually adding value, rather than being something that you have to just push back against.’
Silver, known for his uncanny ability to predict election outcomes, told The Guardian that Trump could win and people should be ‘making their contingency plans, like, right away’
The political guru expressed fears that crucial ‘guardrails’ preventing ‘complete and utter disaster’ during Trump’s first presidency have been ‘weakened’ in the years since.
Yet Silver still warned Democrats against painting Trump as an existential threat to democracy.
That doom-and-gloom strategy is ‘very unappealing to swing voters,’ he said.
‘There were a lot of guardrails in place last time that prevented complete and utter disaster, but those guardrails have been weakened,’ he said.
‘The notion of basically holding voters hostage in that sense is very unappealing … Biden was like: “OK, sure, I may be running for president until I’m 86 and can barely form a complete sentence, but if you don’t vote for me, the country gets it” – that’s a very unappealing message to swing voters.’
As for Harris, Silver sees ‘joyfulness’ in her campaign but worries she’s kept too many Biden-era advisers
As for Harris, Silver sees ‘joyfulness’ in her campaign but worries she’s kept too many Biden-era advisers.
‘Whereas Harris brings more joyfulness and is obviously a very talented woman’. He worries, though, that she has ‘retained too many of the Biden people who thought it was a good idea to keep running [him].’
‘I guess she kind of had to.’ he added.
