Ministers are facing stark warnings that a key pledge on childcare is in serious peril, amid mounting concerns over staff shortages, a fall in the quality of care and fears that parts of the plan are simply undeliverable.

Just weeks away from a widespread extension of free provision, part of what the previous government billed as the “largest ever expansion of childcare in England’s history”, nurseries, preschools and childminders across the country have voiced alarm that they are struggling to recruit staff to meet demand from parents expecting a local place.

Preschools are among those with staff shortfall problems. Photograph: Cavan Images/Getty Images/Cavan Images RF

Bridget Phillipson, the education secretary, said that the former government had “recklessly rushed out a childcare pledge without a plan to deliver it, leaving working people to pay the price”.

However, speaking to the Observer, Phillipson said she was “determined to make sure parents get what was promised to them this year, despite the major challenges that this government faces due to the recklessness and irresponsibility of the Tories”.

From September, working parents of all children aged from nine months old have been promised 15 hours a week of state-funded childcare.

But new industry data seen by the Observer reveals that providers are struggling to attract enough new workers, while many are warning that they are continuing to lose staff.

This has led to concerns that an even more ambitious expansion planned for next year, when the funded hours will be doubled to 30 hours, cannot be delivered without a precipitous decline in standards of care, with the poorest areas disproportionately affected.

Industry leaders are demanding urgent government talks as part of a reset of the plans.

The childcare expansion this September, now less than a month away, is causing immediate anxiety, with younger children requiring more care and staff. The extension of the scheme was described as “problematic” internally in the Department for Education just months ago.

New survey data, collected by the Early Years Alliance from hundreds of providers and shared with the Observer, reveals the extent of industry unease this summer.

Before September’s expansion, the survey showed that 78% of providers had found it difficult to recruit staff in the last year, with nearly half finding it very difficult.

More than six in 10 reported that staff members had left the sector entirely over the previous six months, while eight in 10 had seen an increase in the number of workers leaving the sector compared with two years ago.

In the six months prior to the survey, half of respondents had had to limit or stop taking on new children and nearly two in five had reduced or restricted opening hours. Half said staffing shortages had had a negative impact on the quality of provision.

The findings come six months after the start of a large recruitment campaign designed to deal with the staff shortages that threaten to deprive families of places, reduce the quality of care or force parents to travel farther afield to find suitable provision.

About 81% of respondents who had recruited for one or more roles since the campaign’s launch said there had been no change in the number of applications for positions in their workplace since the launch.

“As these findings show, staffing challenges have already pushed many providers to limit both places and hours offered,” said Neil Leitch, chief executive of the Early Years Alliance. “With less than a month before the next phase of the early entitlement expansion, it’s clear just how critical the need to address the sector’s staffing crisis is.

“The reality is that these offers are coming up quickly and so the government has to respond quickly.

“My big fear is the doubling of the offer in September 2025. Frankly, I cannot see that happening in any shape or form unless there is a ­substantial change. What I ask at this particular point in time is for urgent consultation … This is a chance to reset.”

Ellen Broomé, managing director of the Coram Family and Childcare charity, said that while the confidence of councils to deliver the plans in September had risen recently, the proportion saying they were confident was “still worryingly low”.

Leitch warned that under the current scheme and timetable, England risked being left with a “two-tier system” in which wealthier families would be asked to pay the real costs of providing adequate childcare and early education, while deprived areas would see provision disappear as the huge expansion of government-funded hours increases.

“As well as representing 14,000 nurseries, we operate 41 not-for-profit settings ourselves, exclusively in areas of deprivation,” he said.

“Five years ago, we operated 132. If we can’t make it pay, I struggle to see how anybody else can. Those operators who are in areas of deprivation will be the providers that will go by the wayside.

“Operators who serve, dare I say, more affluent parents – who can afford, perhaps, to pay what is really required – will be able to offer good early years care and education. We will start to have a significant division in opportunity.”

The alliance is calling on ministers to announce a set of pay ambitions for the early years sector to attract staff and stop childcare from being a “babysitting service for parents who work” , making it something that provides good care and boosts early development.

Phillipson said: “The Tories have left a trail of devastation across education and it falls again to Labour to fix their mess, including in childcare.

“This government will deliver a sea change in our early years system, building strong foundations for children to achieve and thrive at school, delivering better life chances and breaking down barriers to opportunity for all our young people.”