This weekend saw almost 1,000 economic migrants arrive on British shores — a record-breaking number that should alarm anyone concerned about our country’s borders.

Keir Starmer is failing the British public on a key metric (Image: PA)

This surge confirms what many have feared: Keir Starmer’s immigration policy is not working. The promise to “smash the gangs” was a soundbite that never stood a chance of success, and by dismantling the only meaningful deterrent we had — the Rwanda plan — Starmer is actively encouraging more dangerous crossings.

As I warned in my report for the Henry Jackson Society earlier this year, almost everything I predicted about Starmer’s immigration approach is now coming to pass. My analysis, which made the front page of this paper, made it clear that without a robust deterrent in place, the boat crossings would not only continue but increase dramatically.

We are now seeing this unfortunate reality unfold as we enter what I have described as the “Age of Migration”—an era where global economic pressures, conflict, and climate change are driving millions of people toward the West, with the UK as a prime destination.

Starmer’s replacement for the Rwanda plan was revealed after he came to office. His approach to handling immigration and human smuggling gangs was finally exposed — and, frankly, it was underwhelming.

Instead of embracing the hard-learned lessons of deterrence, Starmer has chosen to focus all his efforts on a new taskforce targeting smuggling gangs, a strategy that merely mirrors what was already being done by the Conservative government. The existing Small Boats Operational Command was working alongside European counterparts to seize smuggling equipment, disrupt criminal financial networks, and prevent crossings.

In essence, Starmer’s plan is a duplication of what was already in place, offering nothing new. The truth is simple: as long as there is demand for illicit migration, supply will always find a way to meet it. Criminal gangs are highly adaptable, constantly evolving their methods in response to law enforcement measures.

Starmer’s plan to “smash the gangs” through policing alone is doomed to fail because it overlooks a crucial element: deterrence. We have seen the failure of similar approaches in other areas of crime, such as the US’s trillion-dollar war on drugs. Despite decades of policing and dismantling drug cartels, the drug trade continues because demand remains high.

The same will happen with human trafficking, which, as I noted in my report, is even more profitable than drug trafficking. Unlike illicit drugs, where seized shipments are destroyed, human cargo can simply try again. Every failed crossing attempt can be repeated until successful. The result? More boats, more crossings, and more lives risked in the perilous journey across the Channel.

The Rwanda plan was far from perfect, but it was a start. It acted as a psychological deterrent, signaling to would-be migrants that Britain was not an easy target. Early results showed that some migrants were being diverted to Ireland or even turning back to France, underscoring the plan’s deterrence effect.

But by abandoning it, Starmer has left the door wide open for more crossings and more human suffering. In the “Age of Migration”, we are not simply dealing with a temporary surge in migration numbers but rather the beginning of a sustained, long-term trend. Populations in developing countries are booming, and climate change is pushing people out of regions that can no longer support them.

The desire for a better life in the West will only increase, and the UK must be prepared.

My detailed peer-reviewed study by the Henry Jackson Society estimates that if Starmer’s immigration changes are implemented, we could see an additional 250,000 migrants per year. This includes nearly 130,000 migrants from prospective deals with the European Union, further exacerbating the problem. Worse still, Starmer has shown a consistent reluctance to tackle those who exploit our immigration system.

We need to confront the reality of the situation. Starmer’s immigration policy is a failure not because it is compassionate or progressive, but because it disregards the incentives driving people across the Channel. Without a strong deterrent in place, human traffickers will continue to profit, more lives will be risked, and the UK’s border security will be compromised.