Labour’s welfare overhaul aimed at getting more long-term sick back into work will see an EXTRA 400,000 signed off unfit_Nhy
An extra 400,000 people could end up being signed off as unfit to work under controversial welfare overhaul.
The shake-up had been designed to get more long-term sick back into work – and caused fury among Labour’s own MPs.
But it emerged last night that the Government’s own figures now suggest it will actually lead to far more people being on the top level of incapacity benefit by 2030 than previously thought.
The reversal has been triggered by Labour ministers scrapping plans by the previous Tory government which would have forced more people with mobility and mental health problems to look for work.
At present, there are 1.8 million people on the ‘limited capability for work or work-related activity’ element of universal credit. They get £5,000 a year more than jobseekers and are not required to prepare for getting a job.
Official estimates in the autumn suggested this number would increase to 2.6 million by 2030. But yesterday it emerged that updated estimates in a Government impact assessment now say that this figure could top three million.
Government sources told The Times – which first reported the figures – that the main reason for the rise was because the overhaul reverses planned changes to the work capability assessment proposed by the Tories, through which people qualify for incapacity benefits.
This had been due to come into effect later this year.
Secretary of State for Work and Pensions Liz Kendall leaves 10 Downing Street after attending the weekly Cabinet meeting in London, United Kingdom on April 1, 2025
Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride MP delivers a speech during a press conference on Labour’s Jobs Tax at Conservative Central Office, Westminster on April 1, 2025
Rachel Reeves leaves 11 Downing Street to deliver her Spring Statement in the House of Commons in London, Britain, on March 26, 2025
Last night Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride, who developed the Tory blueprint while he was in government, said: ‘It takes a particular level of incompetence to bring forward a welfare reform plan which leaves more people on out-of-work benefits and fewer people in work.
‘Labour inherited reforms which would have seen hundreds of thousands fewer people on long-term benefits where there are no requirements to take steps towards work.
‘They have scrapped those principled reforms and instead chose to rush through cuts to disability benefits designed purely to save the Chancellor from breaking her fiscal rules.’
While the Government initially committed to pressing ahead with the plan, ministers reversed it – at a cost of £1.6 billion a year – after the High Court found the changes would be unlawful because the previous government failed to admit that they were motivated by cost-cutting.
Labour insists that once the £1 billion it has ring-fenced to help more return to work has kicked in, overall more people will ultimately be in work.
However, the Office for Budget Responsibility last week estimated that 16,000 fewer people will be in work as a result of the reforms.
The welfare overhaul, unveiled by Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall last month, has sparked controversy and threats of a backbench rebellion.
Council tax and energy bills are set to go up from April 1, adding to the cost of running a home. On top of that, a rise in the rate of National Insurance Contributions (NICs) for businesses could see prices rise everywhere from supermarkets to the local pub.
In last week’s Spring Statement, Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced it will save nearly £5 billion, if the £1 billion programme to get people back into work is not included.
But furious backbench Labour MPs claim that she is balancing the books off the backs of the vulnerable and lower-income households.
An internal impact assessment by Ms Kendall’s department found that 3.2 million families will on average lose £1,720 a year by April 2030.
While 3.8 million families will gain £420 annually on average, the assessment also found 150,000 carers are set to lose as much as £500 million worth of support payments to help them look after sick loved ones.
