The impact of the Government’s plan to build 1.5 million new homes risks being wiped out by high levels of migration.
Sir Keir Starmer and his deputy Angela Rayner yesterday pledged to provide the new homes during this Parliament, which is due to run for five years.
But according to projections by Oxford University’s Migration Observatory, net migration will amount to almost 1.7 million over that period.
Calculations suggest net migration – the difference between those coming to live long-term in the UK and those emigrating – will settle to 337,000 a year. That would give a total of 1,685,000 over the course of this parliament.
Not all immigrants would require their own homes because many live in shared accommodation or move in with family members already living in Britain, for example.
But the scale of total net migration over the period suggests the Government’s 1.5 million pledge will have significantly less effect on housing shortages as Britain’s population expands.
The Migration Observatory stressed its figure is based on current data and is not a forecast of what will actually happen, because migration levels can be unpredictable.
But its director Madeleine Sumption said the figure was unlikely to change dramatically unless the Government introduces major changes to border controls.
Sir Keir Starmer and his deputy Angela Rayner yesterday pledged to provide the new homes during this Parliament, which is due to run for five years
But according to projections by Oxford University ’s Migration Observatory, net migration will amount to almost 1.7 million over that period. Pictured: Angela Rayner
‘Without significant intervention there is no reason to assume that it would fall any lower than 300,000 a year,’ she said.
The Office for National Statistics published upgraded figures last month showing net migration hit a record 2.2 million over the past three years, including 906,000 in the 12 months to June 2023.
In January the ONS published figures which suggested net migration would be 315,000 a year from mid-2028 onwards.
In the Commons yesterday, shadow housing spokesman Kevin Hollinrake was lambasted by Labour MPs after he said most homes built under the Government’s target would go to migrants coming to the UK.
‘The majority of the homes they deliver will be required for people coming in to this country rather than for British citizens,’ the Tory frontbencher said.
Housing minister Matthew Pennycook branded Mr Hollinrake’s comments as ‘scaremongering’.
‘He knows as well as I do that the majority of homes developers sell in this country are to British nationals,’ the minister said. ‘He’s scaremongering. It’s beneath him.’
Meanwhile, separate data published yesterday showed Labour continues to benefit from visa reforms introduced by the Conservatives earlier this year.
The number of granted visas fell due to restrictions including barring most care workers and students from bringing family members to the UK, and raising salary thresholds.
The number of health and care worker visas was down 83 per cent between April and November, compared with the same period last year.
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Blighting our green and pleasant land
The Green Belt was introduced nearly 70 years ago to protect the countryside around large towns and cities from urban sprawl.
Not every acre has been sacrosanct since, but the principle has held firm. Until now.
Under its controversial planning reforms, the Government is ordering councils to reclassify parts of the Green Belt for residential and commercial use.
While ministers say this will mainly be limited to disused car parks and scrubland – the so-called ‘Grey Belt’ – critics warn it is just the start of a war on rural England.
With Labour’s contempt for the countryside, who’d be surprised if – in its drive to build 1.5 million homes – countless fields are eventually tarmacked, hedgerows grubbed up and meadows concreted?
If councils fail to hit mandatory housing targets, they will be penalised. Oh, and the new planning system is being rigged to minimise objections from people opposed to large-scale developments on their doorstep – undermining democratic accountability.
Of course, Britain has been suffocated by a culture of obstructionism for too long.
Under its controversial planning reforms, the Government is ordering councils to reclassify parts of the Green Belt for residential and commercial use
Pictured: Deputy PM Angela Rayner. The number of homes Ms Rayner wants to build each year is dwarfed by net migration. If Labour tackle this influx, the housing crisis might ease
Thanks to tortuous planning regulations, absurdly strict environmental rules and Nimbys, we have failed to build enough housing or critical infrastructure.
So Deputy PM Angela Rayner is right to rectify a system which stops enough properties being constructed – inflating prices and rents, and puncturing young people’s home-ownership dreams.
But she should first focus on abandoned ‘brownfield’ sites in our main conurbations, and on the 1.2million new homes that have planning permission but are not yet built.
Then there is the elephant in the room: mass immigration. The number of homes Ms Rayner wants to build each year is dwarfed by net migration. If Labour tackle this influx, the housing crisis might ease.
Alongside plans to bulldoze our precious countryside, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband wants to cover every other field with solar panels and wind turbines.
In years to come, will anyone believe that this was once a green and pleasant land?
The stain of secrecy
The more we learn about the incompetence of the officials who failed to protect Sara Sharif, the more disgraceful the veil of secrecy placed over her case becomes.
The authorities missed at least 15 chances to stop the bubbly ten-year-old being tortured and murdered by her evil father and stepmother in August last year.
Perhaps most shocking, a family court judge allowed brutal Urfan Sharif custody of his daughter – despite being aware he had a history of domestic violence.
The more we learn about the incompetence of the officials who failed to protect Sara Sharif the more disgraceful the veil of secrecy placed over her case becomes. The authorities missed at least 15 chances to stop the bubbly ten-year-old (pictured) being tortured and murdered by her evil father and stepmother in August last year
So it is an affront to open justice that the High Court has banned the naming of the judge responsible for the order.
Yes, it may often be right to protect the identities of surviving children in such cases. But there is no reasonable justification for doing so with a senior member of the judiciary.
Isn’t the truth that those who have most to gain from secrecy in family cases will almost always be the social workers, council officials – and, yes, judges too – whose mistakes escape full public scrutiny?
By the same token, errors and misjudgments can only become more commonplace when their perpetrators believe nobody will hear about them.
This decision must be reversed. A decade ago, the Mail won a major victory against secrecy, and for openness, in family courts.
This week’s ruling is a return to the opacity that was a stain on the good name of British justice.