Nigel Farage’s Reform leapfrogs Tories in Scotland with new record high support that puts it on course to win 14 Holyrood seats in next year’s election_Nhy
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has recorded its highest level of support in a Scottish poll, suggesting it could be on course to win 14 seats at Holyrood next year.
A new poll by Survation has the hard right party leapfrogging the Tories in terms of support into third behind the SNP and Labour, after a four-point rise in the constituency vote since January.
Transferred into seats the poll, carried out for Quantum Communications, put the SNP on 55, Labour on 19, the Conservatives on 17, and Reform on 14, with the Lib Dems on 13, the Greens on 10 and Alba on one.
It comes despite several weeks of infighting in the Westminster arm of the party, which has seen MP Rupert Lowe suspended after he questioned Mr Farage’s leadership.
Professor Nicola McEwen of Glasgow University said: ‘The rise of Reform across the UK has been one of the key features of polling in the last year.
‘Until now, Scotland had seemed to buck the trend, but this poll puts Reform UK at its highest share of the vote in Scotland to date.
‘The poll suggests Reform UK could be a real contender for constituency seats in those regions where it has most support, especially Central Scotland, Mid Scotland and Fife, and the West of Scotland.
‘The party is also polling strongly in party list preferences … in the three regions where it is strongest, Reform UK now has around the same vote share as Labour.’
It comes despite several weeks of infighting in the Westminster arm of the party, which has seen MP Rupert Lowe suspended after he questioned Mr Farage’s leadership.
It came as Tory Uk leader Kemi Badenoch turned her fire on ‘reality TV star’ Farage and dismissed calls to ‘unite the Right’ with a Tory/Reform merger.
The Conservative Party leader said that the UK had to move away from ‘politics as showbusiness’ – a pointed reference to Mr Farage’s lucrative appearance on I’m A Celebrity in 2023.
Speaking to The Telegraph after launching her bid for a Tory revival, Mrs Badenoch was pressed about the possibility of uniting with Mr Farage’s party, which is polling better than the Tories across the UK.
But Mrs Badenoch was defiant about merging the two parties, saying: ‘Having appeal doesn’t mean that people want you running their lives. That’s one of the things that we need to make sure that we remind people.
‘This isn’t I’m A Celebrity or Strictly Come Dancing. You don’t vote for the person that you’re enjoying watching and then switch off when the show’s over.
‘You’ve got to live with that person in your life, in your family’s life, at work and so on. That’s what elections are about. It’s not just about watching a show and switching it off. We’ve got to move away from politics as showbusiness.’
The Conservative leader also hit out at the infighting within Reform – which has five MPs – that led to Great Yarmouth’s Rupert Lowe being suspended amid accusations about his conduct, which he has strenuously denied.
‘If they can’t unite with five people, how are they going to unite the Right?’ Mrs Badenoch said.
Alan Roden, co-founder of Quantum Communications, said: ‘Reform is eating into the vote of all the main parties.
‘It continues to gain support despite a bout of infighting among its MPs, a calamitous trip to Scotland by the UK deputy leader, and the absence of a Scottish leader.
‘But the 2026 election still remains highly competitive, with the SNP well down on its 2021 result, Labour ahead of its main rival in central Scotland and Glasgow seats, and the Lib Dems performing well in their key target areas of Edinburgh and the Highlands.’
Mark Diffley, the founder of Diffley Partnership, said: ‘The parties which will feel happiest by this latest poll from Quantum Communications are Reform UK and the SNP.
‘Reform has recorded its highest-ever showing on a Holyrood poll with almost one in six voters backing the party, meaning it would return an estimated 14 MSPs if this result were replicated at next year’s election, making it the fourth largest party in the parliament.
‘SNP vote share has continued to stabilise in the mid-30s, representing a recovery from the party’s showing at the 2024 UK general election – although still a significant fall from the 48% recorded at the last Holyrood election in 2021.’
