Downing Street said Keir Starmer wants to bring down ‘staggeringly high levels’ of migration but dismissed Tory calls for a cap, suggesting it would be ‘arbitrary’

Shadow home secretary Chris Philp said the projections were ‘shocking and unacceptable’ and must be prevented from coming true

The ONS has upgraded its assumptions for net migration from 315,000 a year in previous estimates to 340,000 a year.

Between mid-2022 and mid-2032, 9.9million people are projected to migrate long-term to the UK while nearly five million are projected to emigrate.

The stats body has also downgraded the projected birth rate from 1.59 per woman to 1.45. Life expectancy for men is expected to be 82 rather than the 82.5 pencilled in before – with the figure for women unchanged at 85.6.

The overall population of the UK is projected to rise by 7.3 per cent between mid-2022 and mid-2032, compared with an increase of 6.1 per cent over the previous 10 years.

The number of people at state pension age is projected to rise by 1.7million between 2022 and 2032, from 12million to 13.7million.

That accounts for the planned increases in state pension age to 67 for both sexes.

Meanwhile, by 2032 more than one in 10 – 10.3 per cent – of the UK population are projected to be aged 75 and over. As of 2022 the proportion was 9.1 per cent.

England’s population is projected to grow more quickly than other UK nations in the decade to mid-2032, increasing by 7.8 per cent, compared with 5.9 per cent for Wales, 4.4 per cent for Scotland and 2.1 per cent for Northern Ireland.

The ONS also provides a projection further into the future, covering the 25 years between mid-2022 and mid-2047, for which the total projected growth of the UK population is 8.9million, a jump of 13.2 per cent.

This is lower than the previous 25 years from 1997 to 2022, when the population is estimated to have risen by 9.3million, or 15.9 per cent.

ONS spokesman James Robards said: ‘The UK population is projected to grow by almost 5million over the next decade.

‘The driver of this growth is migration, with natural change – the difference between births and deaths – projected to be around zero.

‘These projections are based on current and past trends, and aren’t forecasts about what may or may not happen in the future.

‘Our latest projections also highlight an increasingly ageing population, with the number of people aged over 85 projected to nearly double to 3.3million by 2047. This is in part because of the ageing of the baby boom generation, as well as general increases in life expectancy.’

The PM’s official spokesman said: ‘We’re going to publish a White Paper to set out a comprehensive plan to end these staggeringly high migration numbers,’ the Prime Minister’s official spokesman said.

‘As the Prime Minister has previously said, we had a supposed cap in place before and it didn’t have any meaningful impact on reducing immigration.

‘So he doesn’t think that setting an arbitrary cap, as previous governments have done, is the best way forward in terms of significantly reducing migration.’

Mr Philp posted on X: ’10 million arrivals over 10 years is far, far too high.

‘We need a hard binding legal cap on visas issued each year, at a very dramatically low level than this.’

He said more investment in technology is needed and more UK residents need to enter the workforce.

‘This projection is shocking and unacceptable. It can and must be stopped from materialising.’

CPS Research Director Karl Williams said: ‘Once again, ONS population projections have net migration running at unsustainable levels – 340,000 per annum from 2029 onwards and accounting for the entirety of the population growth.

‘The reality may in fact be even higher given the projections assume net migration will fall from a projected 631,000 in the year ending June 2025 down to 340,000 per annum from 2029, in spite of the fact the government has announced no concrete plans to actually achieve this.

‘The figures also highlight the challenge of Britain’s ageing population, with pensioners the fastest growing age group. Even the massive levels of net migration do very little to improve the long-term picture, with the ratio of pensioners to working age taxpayers growing all the time.’

Migration Watch chair Alp Mehmet said: ‘Official figures from the ONS have revealed projected population growth by mid-2032 of almost five million people and of almost ten million people by 2047.

‘This astonishing increase will be entirely due to immigration and the children of migrants. The projections are based on the assumption that net migration will fall to an annual 340,000, from 2029, which is unlikely without radical policy change.

The ONS projections highlight the underlying slide in fertility rates, suggesting that the population would nearly halve in 100 years if net migration fell to zero

‘Beside the massive, negative, economic impact, such population increase will lead to a further significant fall in the percentage of the indigenous (white British) population. This has already fallen from 95 per cent in 1991 to 75 per cent in 2021.’

Adam Corlett, Principal Economist at the Resolution Foundation, said: ‘Britain is forecast to have a slightly bigger population by the end of the decade than previously thought.

‘While the projected number of children in Britain has been revised down by 160,000, this has been more than offset by working-age population forecasts rising by around 400,000, driven by higher net migration.

‘A larger working-age population means a bigger economy, more workers, and higher tax receipts, which should deliver a fiscal boost of around £5 billion a year by the end of the decade.

‘If the OBR uses these population projections, this will be welcome news for the Chancellor given the wider economic pressures she is facing.’