Donald Trump ‘s return to the White House saw Sir Keir Starmer claim the ‘special relationship’ will ‘continue to flourish’. But can US-UK relations really remain serene until 2029?

Tariffs – Will the UK be spared if Trump sparks a trade war?

The US President has called tariffs ‘the most beautiful word’ in the dictionary.

Mr Trump has threatened to slap a 10 per cent tariff on all foreign-made goods, a 60 per cent tariff on Chinese goods and a 100 per cent tariff on all cars imported to the US.

Economists have estimated a global trade war sparked by Mr Trump would halve Britain’s economic growth and the UK would be one of the most-affected countries.

But Labour is hopeful that Britain can escape any tariffs imposed by the US President.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has suggested the UK won’t be a target because Britain has a trade deficit with America, whereas other countries have a trade surplus.

She told Sky News: ‘I believe in free and open trade, and I’ll be making that case to my counterparts in the US.’

At the same time as facing down the threat of tariffs, Labour is also keen to resume negotiations on a US-UK trade deal under Mr Trump.

Sir Keir is reported to have set up a ‘mini-Cabinet’ of his senior ministers to draw up ways to persuade the US President to strike an agreement with Britain.

A major sticking point for a deal is likely to be a reluctance by Labour to open up British markets to US agriculture products, such as chlorinated chicken.

But Lord Mandelson, who Sir Keir wants as Britain’s new US ambassador, has suggested there could instead be a tech-focused agreement with America.

Ukraine – Trump wants a peace deal, but at what cost?

Just days before Mr Trump’s return to the White House, Sir Keir made his first visit to Ukraine as PM during which he struck a 100-year pact with the war-torn country.

It cemented Britain’s position as one of Ukraine’s staunchest allies in the wake of Russia’s invasion.

But there are question marks over continued US support for Ukraine under Mr Trump’s administration.

It is thought he will press for peace talks early in his presidency, having once claimed he would end the war ‘in 24 hours’.

There have been concerns that Mr Trump could push Ukraine to give up some of its territory that is currently occupied by Russia as the price of an end to the conflict.

Many of Mr Trump’s fellow Republicans have publicly criticised the amount of aid the US is providing to Kyiv, which outstrips that provided by European countries.

The coming months could see a push from European capitals – including London – for Ukraine to be put in the strongest possible position for future peace negotiations.

Ukraine itself has warned Mr Trump against opening early talks, and have called on him to help them make Vladimir Putin ‘feel pain’ before any such talks begin.

Since returning to the White House, the US President has taken a hardline stance towards Moscow and threatened further sanctions if Russia does not end ‘this ridiculous war’.

Just days before Mr Trump’s return to the White House, Sir Keir made his first visit to Ukraine as PM during which he struck a 100-year pact with Volodymyr Zelensky

NATO – Will Labour match demand for more defence cash?

One of Mr Trump’s long-running bugbears has been a reluctance by European nations to boost defence spending.

He recently demanded that NATO allies shoud spend 5 per cent of gross domestic product on defence – a huge increase from the current 2 per cent target.

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there has been a marked increase in the number of NATO countries meeting that 2 per cent target.

But, last year, none of them – including the US – spent five per cent of GDP on defence.

Poland was the biggest spender at 4.12 per cent of GDP, followed by Estonia (3.43 per cent), the US (3.38 per cent), and Latvia (3.15 per cent).

According to NATO figures, the UK spent 2.33 per cent of GDP on defence in 2024.

Prior to July’s general election, Labour pledged to boost this to 2.5 per cent. But Sir Keir has so far refused to put a timeline on when this ambition will be reached.

Chagos Islands – Will Trump block Labour’s ‘surrender’?

Labour made a shock announcement in October that it was ceding sovereignty of the Chagos Islands – a British overseas territory for more than 200 years – to Mauritius.

As part of the arrangement, the joint US-UK military base on Diego Garcia – the largest of the islands – will remain operational for at least 99 years.

But critics have savaged the agreement, reported to be costing UK taxpayers nearly £9billion, and Sir Keir’s decision to give up the strategically-important archipelago.

They have voiced fears that handing over control of the islands to Mauritius, viewed as an ally of China, will further open up the Indian Ocean to Beijing’s reach.

Opponents of Labour’s agreement include senior allies of Mr Trump.

Marco Rubio, who is Mr Trump’s new US secretary of state, previously labelled the Chagos Islands deal ‘a serious threat’ to national security.

He warned it ‘threatens critical US military posture in the region’.

It was previously claimed Labour was trying to finalise a deal with Mauritius before Mr Trump officially replaced Joe Biden, who supported the handover, as US President.

But Downing Street later admitted Mr Trump’s administration would be given the chance to consider the terms of the agreement.

Critics of the sovereignty deal are hopeful Mr Trump might attempt to veto the agreement once it reaches his desk.

Labour made a shock announcement in October that it was ceding sovereignty of the Chagos Islands – a British overseas territory for more than 200 years – to Mauritius

Elon Musk – Will the Starmer critic’s opinion sway Trump? 

Sir Keir has recently been subject to a barrage of attacks by billionaire tech mogul Elon Musk.

The world’s richest man, a close ally of Mr Trump, has attacked the PM over Britain’s summer riots, grooming gangs, and the jailing of far-right thug Tommy Robinson.

This has included labelling the Labour premier ‘Two Tier Keir’ as Mr Musk fuelled claims that UK police treat some groups more harshly than others.

Mr Trump himself – publicly at least – has not been so undiplomatic about Sir Keir.

After they met in New York in September, Mr Trump praised the PM as ‘very nice’.

He said of Labour’s general election victory: ‘He ran a great race, he did very well, it’s very early, he’s very popular.’

But there will be fears in Downing Street that Mr Musk, who has been dubbed the US President’s ‘First Buddy’, could yet sway Mr Trump’s opinion of the PM.

The X owner has been appointed to lead a Department of Government Efficiency (Doge) in the US by Mr Trump.

China – How will Trump view Labour cosying up to Beijing?

As part of his ‘America First’ agenda, Mr Trump has taken a hardline stance towards China.

During his first term in the White House, there was a sharp increase in US Navy activity in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait.

He also broke long-running US foreign policy by speaking directly with the president of Taiwan in a major provocation towards Beijing.

Mr Trump showed no sign of softening his attitude towards China when campaigning for re-election.

He vowed to ‘completely eliminate dependence on China in all critical areas’ and threatened punitive tariffs on Beijing.

This stands in contrast with Labour’s current bid to improve the UK’s trade ties with China as Sir Keir and Ms Reeves scramble for economic growth.

The Chancellor recently cosied up with Chinese officials on a controversial trip to Beijing and Shanghai.

This was despite ongoing concerns over the country’s human rights record and its actions in Hong Kong and Xinjiang.

Analysts have suggested Mr Trump’s views on China are ‘fairly changeable’ depending on what is politically advantageous to him at the time.

But there’s a possibility that his stance towards Beijing could clash with Labour’s efforts to improve UK relations with China, which previously cooled under the Tories.

Sir Keir has recently been subject to a barrage of attacks by billionaire tech mogul Elon Musk

Climate – ‘Drill baby drill’ versus Labour’s Net Zero drive?

One of the starkest political differences between Mr Trump and Sir Keir is their attitude towards energy and the climate.

The US President promised to ‘drill baby drill’ during his victorious election campaign and wants to boost US oil and gas production and reverse climate rules.

In one of his first acts after returning to the White House, Mr Trump revoked Mr Biden’s target of making half of all new vehicles sold in 2030 in the US electric.

He also again withdrew the US from the Paris climate agreement, repeating action he took during his first term.

By contrast, Sir Keir has pledged to decarbonise the UK’s electricity grid and end the sale of new petrol and diesel cars by 2030 as part of Labour’s green agenda.

He wants to make the UK a ‘clean energy superpower’, which will include building enough offshore wind turbines to power 20million homes.

Earlier this month, Mr Trump told the UK to ‘get rid of windmills’ and to ‘open up the North Sea’ for more oil and gas production.

‘The UK is making a very big mistake,’ he wrote on his social media site, Truth Social.

‘Neo-Nazi sympathiser’ – Can Trump forgive past insults?

Senior figures in Sir Keir’s Cabinet, who will now have to work closely with the Trump administration, have previously been outspoken critics of the US President.

David Lammy, the Foreign Secretary, called Mr Trump a ‘racist and KKK/neo-Nazi sympathiser’ in 2017 when he was a backbench MP.

In the same year, now Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said Mr Trump’s approach to politics was ‘normalising hatred’.

And Health Secretary Wes Streeting described him as a ‘odious, sad little man’.

The past remarks of Sir Keir’s top team could prove to be a difficulty in charming the new White House administration.

The US President promised to ‘drill baby drill’ during his victorious election campaign and wants to boost US oil and gas production and reverse climate rules

Brexit – Will Labour’s ‘reset’ of EU relations anger Trump?

Prior to his first term in the White House, Mr Trump backed Brexit by saying Britain would be ‘better off without’ the EU.

He has been a frequent critic of the Brussels-based bloc and threatened trade tariffs on its 27 member states.

As he began his second spell as US President, Mr Trump claimed the EU had been ‘very, very bad to us’.

‘So, they’re going to be in for tariffs. It’s the only way… you’re going to get fairness,’ he added.

But, at the same time as Mr Trump is threatening a trade war against the EU, Sir Keir is seeking to ‘reset’ Britain’s post-Brexit relationship with the bloc.

In the coming years, the PM is set to face a tricky balancing act between his ambition to move closer towards Brussels, while keeping the new US administration on side.